The 78% That Did Not Exist: Reconstructing Polymarket's Misdated Rate Signal"
"article": "The Polymarket contract priced a 78% implied probability that the...
Podcast
•
StackSignal
•
2026-09-15
Market Prices
| Coin | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
|
BTC
Bitcoin
|
$81,475.3 | -0.24% |
|
ETH
Ethereum
|
$2,413.82 | -1.28% |
|
SOL
Solana
|
$103.85 | -0.83% |
|
BNB
BNB Chain
|
$717.7 | -1.18% |
|
XRP
XRP Ledger
|
$1.3 | -1.60% |
|
DOGE
Dogecoin
|
$0.0793 | -1.89% |
|
ADA
Cardano
|
$0.2208 | -2.08% |
|
AVAX
Avalanche
|
$9.86 | -3.28% |
|
DOT
Polkadot
|
$1.13 | -5.18% |
|
LINK
Chainlink
|
$11.95 | -3.68% |
Fear & Greed
55
Greed
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202610
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
Altseason Index
41
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Trending
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$81,475.3
1
Ethereum
ETH
$2,413.82
1
Solana
SOL
$103.85
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$717.7
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.3
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0793
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.2208
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$9.86
1
Polkadot
DOT
$1.13
1
Chainlink
LINK
$11.95
🐋 Whale Tracker
🟢
0x9e48...2384
2m ago
In
4,606,790 DOGE
🔴
0xd6de...d5db
3h ago
Out
3,904,303 USDT
🔵
0xf0f0...8b21
12m ago
Stake
30,335 BNB
💡 Smart Money
0x6158...df1a
Arbitrage Bot
-$0.6M
64%
0x230b...1cfd
Institutional Custody
+$4.4M
76%
0x178c...1ce6
Market Maker
+$3.5M
93%
#poly
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Anthropic's 10,000 Scientists: The Quiet Architecture of a Research Monopoly
The system claims to democratize access. But the ledger reveals a different...
Altcoins
•
PowerPanda
•
2026-08-28