The 78% That Did Not Exist: Reconstructing Polymarket's Misdated Rate Signal"
"article": "The Polymarket contract priced a 78% implied probability that the...
Podcast
•
StackSignal
•
2026-09-15
Market Prices
| Coin | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
|
BTC
Bitcoin
|
$80,884.3 | -0.90% |
|
ETH
Ethereum
|
$2,346.86 | -2.99% |
|
SOL
Solana
|
$100.96 | -3.06% |
|
BNB
BNB Chain
|
$707.6 | -1.50% |
|
XRP
XRP Ledger
|
$1.26 | -3.12% |
|
DOGE
Dogecoin
|
$0.0765 | -4.51% |
|
ADA
Cardano
|
$0.2124 | -4.45% |
|
AVAX
Avalanche
|
$9.38 | -5.11% |
|
DOT
Polkadot
|
$1.05 | -7.48% |
|
LINK
Chainlink
|
$11.6 | -4.09% |
Fear & Greed
53
Neutral
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202618
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
Altseason Index
40
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Trending
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$80,884.3
1
Ethereum
ETH
$2,346.86
1
Solana
SOL
$100.96
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$707.6
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.26
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0765
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.2124
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$9.38
1
Polkadot
DOT
$1.05
1
Chainlink
LINK
$11.6
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔵
0xc263...ad72
30m ago
Stake
2,320,739 DOGE
🔵
0x31e0...bfba
1d ago
Stake
15,467 SOL
🔵
0x8123...e27f
1d ago
Stake
8,145,662 DOGE
💡 Smart Money
0xbdea...cd28
Early Investor
+$4.7M
80%
0x32ab...1fd3
Top DeFi Miner
+$2.7M
82%
0x3400...d036
Arbitrage Bot
-$3.0M
84%
#POLY
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•
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